Lee Morof's Real Estate Blog

New housing construction starts reached a record high in December 2019 going up 16.9%. This represents a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.608 million homes last December, which beat the record set in December 2006, 13 years ago, according to CNBC.

This was surprising news, as predictions made before the end of the year were that housing starts in December would reach only 1.375 million homes.

Experts say the current housing construction boom in the United States gets its support from the easy mortgage financing available and positive consumer expectations about the economy.

What Does The New Housing Boom Mean To Buyers And Sellers?

It is a wonderful time to be a home builder, except that builders are experiencing a shortage of construction labor and less availability of low-priced building lots. Nevertheless, there are plenty of interested buyers, especially for modestly-priced starter homes that very desirable for first-time homebuyers.

If you are one of these interested buyers, then, make sure you stand out from the crowd. Be sure to get your credit history in order so that any mistakes are corrected. Get pre-approved for a loan commitment in writing to be the most attractive buyer to a home builder. You may also have to be patient while waiting for your new home to be built. Put your deposit down and then allow extra time for the process to complete. Builders are extremely busy right now.

Consider Renovating For Resale Value

If you are thinking of selling your home, consider making renovations to bring it up to high-quality standards in a “like new” condition. Many buyers who are paying a premium for a newly constructed home will also consider a newly renovated one. Work closely with your REALTOR® to make sure your renovations have the best chance to add value and increase the resale price.

The Boom Areas

Housing starts were up about 40.8% in December when considered on a year-on-year basis. Single-family homes are the largest portion of the housing market. Those new housing starts increased in the Midwest and the South while decreasing in the Northeast and the West. The Midwest and South are seeing revitalized interest in residential home investments after being stagnant for the previous six quarters.

Summary

As we go forward in 2020, homebuilders’ confidence is slowing slightly but still remains close to levels last experienced in the middle of 1999. The housing market, which represents about 3.1% of the total U.S. economy, is doing its part to support the longest economic expansion on record.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in listing your current property, be sure to consult with your trusted real estate professional.

Last week’s economic news included readings on construction spending, along with public and private-sector jobs growth. The national unemployment rate, weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Rises in July

July construction spending ticked up to 0.10 percent from June’s negative reading of -0.80 percent. Year-over-year, construction spending was 5.80 percent higher than for July 2017.Public-sector construction accounted for most of the growth and increased by 0.70 percent as private-sector construction projects decreased by -0.10 percent.

Month-to-month spending readings can be volatile, but analysts said that construction spending for the first seven months of 2018 were up 5.20 percent from the same period in 2017. July’s slower spending rate suggested that construction projects are slowing.

Given ongoing shortages of available homes, this is not good news for housing markets. High demand has driven home prices up, but affordability has become an issue in areas where home prices outpace inflation and wage growth.

Mortgage Rates Rise as New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week; the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose two basis points to 4.54 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.99 percent and were two basis points higher.

Rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged eight basis points higher at 3.93 percent. Analysts said that home prices continued to rise as demand for homes softened Higher home prices and mortgage rates sidelined first-time and moderate-income home buyers as slim inventories of homes for sale sidelined buyers who could not find homes they wanted to buy.

First-time jobless claims were lower last week with 213,000 claims filed. Analysts expected 212,000 new claims to be filed based on the prior week’s reading of 213,000 first-time filings. The national unemployment rate held steady at 3.90 percent.

ADP payrolls dropped to 163,000 private-sector jobs in August as compared to 217,000 private-sector jobs added in July. The Commerce Department’s Non-Farm Payrolls reported 201,000 public and private-sector jobs added in August, which fell short of the expected reading of 212,000 jobs added and the prior month’s reading of 213,000 jobs added.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic readings include reports on inflation, retail sales and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s housing related news was limited to Construction Spending and Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates survey, but labor reports suggested an economic slowdown may be in the works.

Construction Spending Slips in April, Mortgage Rates Mixed

According to the Commerce Department, overall construction spending slipped in April to -1.80 percent as compared to March’s reading of +1.50 percent and May’s expected reading of +0.70 percent. Residential construction spending was 1.50 percent lower, which doesn’t help ongoing shortages of available single-family homes. Builders have repeatedly cited labor shortages and lack of developed lots as obstacles to building more homes. Year-over-year construction spending was 4.50 percent higher.

Freddie Mac reported higher rates for fixed-rate mortgages while the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was one basis point lower at 1.87 percent. Rates for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage averaged two basis points higher at 3.66 percent; rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgages were three basis points higher at 2.92 percent. Average discount points were unchanged for all loan types at 0.50 percent.

Labor Reports Indicate Slowing Jobs Market And Economy

According to the Non-farm Payrolls report for May, U.S. jobs increased at their lowest rate in five years with 38,000 new private and public sector jobs added. Temporary hiring also hit its lowest reading in seven years, which was seen as a negative as temporary jobs often transition to permanent positions.

Analysts said that May’s extremely low reading for jobs created indicates that a revision is likely. This inconsistency was supported by the national unemployment rate of 4.70 percent, but the lower jobless rate was attributed to workers leaving the labor force.

ADP’s May reading for private sector jobs rose to 173,000 jobs against expectations of 165,000 jobs and April’s reading of 268,000. This reading was further evidence that the Non-farm Payrolls report was likely inaccurate.

Last week’s new jobless claims fell to a five-week low of 267,000 as compared to expectations of 279,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 268,000 new claims.

What’s Ahead This Week

Economic news scheduled for this week include a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Monday; this speech could foreshadow the Fed’s decision to raise or not raise the Fed’s target federal funds rate during its FOMC meeting later this month.

Readings on job openings and consumer sentiment will be released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.